Over the Fence Interview on Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine: What would a “President” Trump have done?

New Rural Virginia member and Rappahannock resident Larry Wohlers spent three years in Moscow in the course of a 37-year career in the State Department.  In this interview, we asked him to imagine how America’s response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine might have changed if Donald Trump had still been president.

 New Rural VA:  If Trump were still president, how would his policy towards Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have differed from Biden’s?

 LW:  I think Trump himself would agree that his approach would have been radically different. In fact, his public statements suggest that he would have done the opposite of Biden – he would have refused to send arms and ammunition to the Ukrainians and would not have rallied the NATO alliance to oppose the invasion and impose sanctions on Russia.

 Why?  First, because he really likes and admires Putin, even regularly calling him a genius. We rarely hear Trump criticizing Putin’s autocratic tendencies – the poisoning of opposition figures, for example, or the extreme brutality of the Russian military.  Second, Trump bears a personal grudge against Ukrainian President Zelensky for refusing to support Trump’s attack on Biden prior to the 2020 election.  Last, Trump made no secret of his dislike of European leaders and his disdain for NATO.    

 For all these reasons, it seems likely that Trump would not only have refused to support Ukraine but would have publicly defended Putin’s “right” to take the country over.

 NewRuralVa: What would be the consequence of such a radically different approach?

 LW:  For Ukraine, it would have been game over.  The Ukrainians are incredibly brave and smart soldiers, but that wouldn’t have been nearly enough without arms and ammunition. In short, Russian forces would by now have occupied all of Ukraine. 

 Of course, the misery of the Ukrainian people would have only just begun.  Even today, the brutal nature of Russia’s occupation, including killing or deporting anyone suspected of Ukrainian patriotism, has already driven 7 million Ukrainians into exile.  If Russia had occupied the entire country, that refugee population could have easily doubled or tripled.  That would not only have been a real tragedy for them, but an enormous burden for the rest of Europe. 

 NewRuralVa:  Why should Americans care?  Ukraine is so far away from us.

 It is far away. But this is about the future of Europe too. Putin despises the trans-Atlantic alliance that America created after World War II. He wants America out of Europe so that he, Putin, can reshape Europe to his liking.  Trump, meanwhile, also wants America out of Europe.  His America First vision looks at NATO as just a burden, not an alliance that benefits both sides. 

So they would each have their reasons for making sure the NATO alliance ended in 2022, effectively if not yet officially. 

 Putin would then have been free to realize his dreams of restoring a greater Russian empire – first by occupying former parts of the Soviet Union such as Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic states.  Next by putting pressure on neighbors like Poland, Hungary and Serbia to accept Russian dominance.  Then, in the longer term, using Russia’s control of Europe’s energy supplies to exercise political dominance over western European countries like Germany and France. 

 NewRuralVa:  Could Trump, or any president, really have made such important decisions by himself?  What about Congress?

 LW:  Of course, there would have been pushback by the Democrats, and some Republicans, in Congress.  After all, the lesson of World War II was that America is better off when it engages actively in the world -- and does so by building alliances with other democracies. 

 Remember, America First is not a new idea.  In the run-up to World War II, a vocal American movement argued the conflict was none of our business.  Luckily, President Roosevelt knew better.  Imagine, after all, if we had not joined the war?  Europe might still be ruled by Nazis and Asia by the Japanese Empire!  The oceans might have protected America from actual invasion, but the world would have been a much sadder and poorer place.

 NewRuralVA:  So Americans should think about national security issues, not just the domestic ones, when they vote for a presidential candidate?

 LW:  Absolutely.  Electing a president is the one clear opportunity to have an impact on the direction of American foreign policy as a voter. Our presidents have a great deal of freedom of action on national security. Unless both parties had been completely unified to oppose him, a reelected Trump would have been pretty much free to do what he wanted, including supporting Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  With all of the unfortunate consequences. 

 And not just for Ukraine and Europe.  Authoritarian countries are quick to exploit weakness.  So one can imagine that China would have thought, if America stood aside when Putin invaded Ukraine, why would it intervene if we invade Taiwan?  It wouldn’t be hard, therefore, to imagine the emergence of a new world order, one dominated by authoritarian countries like China and Russia.  That might seem improbable today, but it could in fact happen very quickly.